The image above is a look at projected rainfall totals on Monday. Areas north and west will likely see the most rain.
Weather Summary
We’re going to have to suddenly keep a close eye on Monday now. There’s both a severe weather threat and a flash flood threat with this system. It’s going to be interesting to see how this all plays out because these types of storms can be very sneaky. Essentially what’s happening here is an area low pressure is going to be moving into the warm sector, which is a very warm, very humid, incredibly unstable airmass. As this process takes place, heavy thunderstorms and downpours will develop.
A warm front will push through during the morning. There could be a period of showers or light rain prior to the front’s arrival and then a gusty thunderstorm with the front itself. But it’s during the afternoon where things could get really dicey around here as the center of the low and its trailing cold front arrive.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has upgraded the severe threat to a level 2 out of 5 now. A level 2 severe risk means scattered heavy thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds are possible along with a couple of tornadoes. But with that being said, it’s important to understand that not everyone will see severe weather in a level 2 risk. Some communities will, while others only get rain or just a thunderstorm.
On top of this the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has now put most of the area in a slight risk for flash flooding. A slight risk means scattered flash flooding is possible, and some flooding could be significant in localized areas. Most areas will not experience flash flooding. However, some locations will see several inches of rain in a very short period of time and given the rocky terrain north and west, this could be very problematic. The most vulnerable areas will be smaller creeks and streams, urban areas, overwhelmed storm drains and other poor drainage locations.
It’s a good idea to stay weather aware Monday afternoon.
Severe Weather Outlook
Flash Flood Risk
