Summary

The tropics are beginning to show signs of life. At least on the model data. However, as of this morning the National Hurricane Center is not forecasting any tropical development in the Gulf, Caribbean or Atlantic during the next 7 days.

 

The broad disturbance over the Gulf is primarily a heavy-rain and flooding concern rather than a tropical storm threat. Wind shear remains fairly strong, which should limit organization. Therefore, the odds of this becoming a named storm in the short term remain very low.

 

Looking a little farther ahead, there is some interest in whether energy from the active eastern Pacific (off Mexico and Central America) could eventually migrate into the western Caribbean or Gulf around the middle of June. At this point. that’s still speculative and beyond the reliable forecast range, but it’s something worth monitoring.

 

Tropical Depression Probability

Below is a look at the tropical depression probability over the next 2 weeks. It’s generally in that 35-45% range in the Gulf.

 

 

Tropical Storm Probability

Below is a look at the tropical storm probability over the next two weeks. Chances are very low at only 15-25%.