The image above is a look at the categorical severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 1st. The outlooks that are provided by the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) are broken down into levels that range from 1 to 5.
Level 1 = Isolated
Level 2 = Scattered
Level 3 = Numerous
Level 4 = Widespread, Severe Weather Outbreak (Including Tornadoes)
Level 5 = Widespread, Tornado Outbreak, Derecho
For the most part we’re on the lower end of the scale, but a level 2 can still bring pockets of violent weather to the area. The difference is its short lived whereas a level 4 or 5 would be violent weather that is long lived. Or in other words, if we see a tornado in a level 2 it’s expected to be on and off the ground in a matter of minutes (very quickly). Yet a tornado that touches down in a level 4 or 5 might stay on the ground for 40 minutes.
Last week we were under a level 2, but we still saw extensive wind damage and flash flooding.
Tuesday’s hazards (Sept. 1st) are listed below
Damaging Winds Tornado
Hail
Timing
What’s interesting is this the RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) shown below has much of the day being dry with heavy thunderstorms coming in after sunset. The HRRR is similar. Other forecast models bring these storms in a little earlier in the day (evening commute). Given the data, I would think any time after 5pm from north to south.
9:00pm Tuesday 11:00pm Tuesday
2:00am Wednesday
